Update 12.2.2026 | Q4 Results are in. Not pretty. Stock -15% to SEK 55.
The numbers:
🚩 Profitability collapsed - EBIT margin 1.2% vs 17.8% last year. Full year 9.0% vs 18.8%. Ugly.
🚩 Currency doomloop confirmed - Single biggest driver of the ugly headlines.
🚩 Management looks lost - New CEO started December 17th. Give him time...
🚩 Hardware keys remain niche - Top 3 verticals: high-tech, financial services, defense. They're leaning into segments where "good enough" passkeys aren't good enough. Smart, but confirms the niche.
✅ Subscription flywheel is REAL - Strongest confirmation from the report. 28% of bookings now subscription (vs 19% last year). ARR +21% to SEK 391m. Renewals SEK 96m in Q4 alone. Customers are locked in and not leaving!!!
✅ Bookings in constant currency = record quarter. Largest booking quarter in Yubico history when you strip out FX. Demand isn't dying. It's being masked.
✅ Optionality getting real - Straight from the report: "protect user and AI agent identities end-to-end." They're starting to believe their own re-rating story. The market can do what it wants.
✅ Balance sheet is a good - SEK 856m net cash. No real debt. They can fund this transition without diluting you.
Pain isn't over. Transition continues through 2026. This doesn't turnaround in a few quarters. Weakness → More weakness. Currency doomloop still in the mix. We are probably not at the bottom.
Risk/reward? Still beautiful. Thesis holds. We keep dreaming!
Update 12.2.2026 | Q4 Results are in. Not pretty. Stock -15% to SEK 55.
The numbers:
🚩 Profitability collapsed - EBIT margin 1.2% vs 17.8% last year. Full year 9.0% vs 18.8%. Ugly.
🚩 Currency doomloop confirmed - Single biggest driver of the ugly headlines.
🚩 Management looks lost - New CEO started December 17th. Give him time...
🚩 Hardware keys remain niche - Top 3 verticals: high-tech, financial services, defense. They're leaning into segments where "good enough" passkeys aren't good enough. Smart, but confirms the niche.
✅ Subscription flywheel is REAL - Strongest confirmation from the report. 28% of bookings now subscription (vs 19% last year). ARR +21% to SEK 391m. Renewals SEK 96m in Q4 alone. Customers are locked in and not leaving!!!
✅ Bookings in constant currency = record quarter. Largest booking quarter in Yubico history when you strip out FX. Demand isn't dying. It's being masked.
✅ Optionality getting real - Straight from the report: "protect user and AI agent identities end-to-end." They're starting to believe their own re-rating story. The market can do what it wants.
✅ Balance sheet is a good - SEK 856m net cash. No real debt. They can fund this transition without diluting you.
Pain isn't over. Transition continues through 2026. This doesn't turnaround in a few quarters. Weakness → More weakness. Currency doomloop still in the mix. We are probably not at the bottom.
Risk/reward? Still beautiful. Thesis holds. We keep dreaming!
When to stop dreaming? This report still confirms that we can dream.
- ARR growth stops, subscription flywheel compounding was a dream.
- Keeps losing cash.
- New CEO starts doing stupid acquisitions
If any of these happen, we kill the dream. No emotions, no "hopium". Out.