Update 12.2.2026 | Q4 Results are in. Not pretty. Stock -15% to SEK 55.
The numbers:
🚩 Profitability collapsed - EBIT margin 1.2% vs 17.8% last year. Full year 9.0% vs 18.8%. Ugly.
🚩 Currency doomloop confirmed - Single biggest driver of the ugly headlines.
🚩 Management looks lost - New CEO started December 17th. Give him time...
🚩 Hardware keys remain niche - Top 3 verticals: high-tech, financial services, defense. They're leaning into segments where "good enough" passkeys aren't good enough. Smart, but confirms the niche.
✅ Subscription flywheel is REAL - Strongest confirmation from the report. 28% of bookings now subscription (vs 19% last year). ARR +21% to SEK 391m. Renewals SEK 96m in Q4 alone. Customers are locked in and not leaving!!!
✅ Bookings in constant currency = record quarter. Largest booking quarter in Yubico history when you strip out FX. Demand isn't dying. It's being masked.
✅ Optionality getting real - Straight from the report: "protect user and AI agent identities end-to-end." They're starting to believe their own re-rating story. The market can do what it wants.
✅ Balance sheet is a good - SEK 856m net cash. No real debt. They can fund this transition without diluting you.
Pain isn't over. Transition continues through 2026. This doesn't turnaround in a few quarters. Weakness → More weakness. Currency doomloop still in the mix. We are probably not at the bottom.
Risk/reward? Still beautiful. Thesis holds. We keep dreaming!
This ain’t pretty! :D
Currently at 30,26 SEK (-50% from my elevator pitch).
They just dropped a forced profit warning “inadvertently disclosed.”
Great job! FFS!
Classic move from one of the most hyped company:
Hire aggressively in 2025 → fire people in early 2026.
Very poor job from management.
Bookings down ~25%. WTF?
The business looks shit. The product does not. (I still like it.)
Still: the thesis is not dead yet. None of the kill switches has triggered:
Starts losing money
ARR growth stops (Q1 report is key… doesn’t look great)
They start doing stupid acquisitions
This was a witty gigabrain “mispriced transition story” in early 2026.
Now? Just a painful Swedish small cap to hold.
Update 12.2.2026 | Q4 Results are in. Not pretty. Stock -15% to SEK 55.
The numbers:
🚩 Profitability collapsed - EBIT margin 1.2% vs 17.8% last year. Full year 9.0% vs 18.8%. Ugly.
🚩 Currency doomloop confirmed - Single biggest driver of the ugly headlines.
🚩 Management looks lost - New CEO started December 17th. Give him time...
🚩 Hardware keys remain niche - Top 3 verticals: high-tech, financial services, defense. They're leaning into segments where "good enough" passkeys aren't good enough. Smart, but confirms the niche.
✅ Subscription flywheel is REAL - Strongest confirmation from the report. 28% of bookings now subscription (vs 19% last year). ARR +21% to SEK 391m. Renewals SEK 96m in Q4 alone. Customers are locked in and not leaving!!!
✅ Bookings in constant currency = record quarter. Largest booking quarter in Yubico history when you strip out FX. Demand isn't dying. It's being masked.
✅ Optionality getting real - Straight from the report: "protect user and AI agent identities end-to-end." They're starting to believe their own re-rating story. The market can do what it wants.
✅ Balance sheet is a good - SEK 856m net cash. No real debt. They can fund this transition without diluting you.
Pain isn't over. Transition continues through 2026. This doesn't turnaround in a few quarters. Weakness → More weakness. Currency doomloop still in the mix. We are probably not at the bottom.
Risk/reward? Still beautiful. Thesis holds. We keep dreaming!
When to stop dreaming? This report still confirms that we can dream.
- ARR growth stops, subscription flywheel compounding was a dream.
- Keeps losing cash.
- New CEO starts doing stupid acquisitions
If any of these happen, we kill the dream. No emotions, no "hopium". Out.