Here We Are Again.
Bitcoin down -55%, still I want to believe.
Here we are again. Bitcoin dies again. AI gurus and the whores of government and wanker bankers laughing their asses off at how idiotic Bitcoiners are.
Why pwice down?
Bonds trade like stocks, stocks trade like memecoins, so why bother with crypto? This was my thesis from 2022. I was also too hopeful that bitcoin would be a good antidote for “clownworld”. Good example of why believing in ideology is cool and fun but, as capital allocation, poor. Look at the gold bugs. Yes, they got the macro picture 100% right, but the price action took decades. At top prices, I asked what if the cycle will be broken to the downside? 20-year bear market?
You don’t make money betting “idea” and being a believer. Be it crypto, Bitcoin, Chip stocks, Dram stocks, Nvidia, S&P 500… You make money selling your bags to idiotic believers. Be it whatever asset class. Who will you sell your Bitcoin to now? Only believers are left “stay humble and stack sats”.
Bitcoin lost its monopoly on the “fiat debasement/scarcity asset” narrative. Why bother? Be it AI, Gold, commodities, quantum, chips, ram whatever. Narratives change so fast, everything trades like crypto 2017 and 2021, extreme narrative chasing.
Nobody cares about Bitcoin (this is also very bullish), and it's hard to see how that would change in the short term.
Wen pwice up
Bitcoin has taught me more than an MBA, more than running my business and investing as a hobby for 20+ years.
Austrian economics, cycles, monetary history, time preference, decentralization, individual sovereignty.
This has more value than Bitcoin priced at whatever 7-figure dick price.
It also makes me more hopeful; look how the youth quote Mises and Hayek and start more and more businesses (here in Finland). Yeah, it is very small and only a handful, but still up from zero!
Bitcoin is still a good bet:
Bitcoin is still the only fully-decentralized, fixed-supply, censorship-resistant monetary asset.
Back to interesting “valuation” -55% drawdown from the tops. Gigabrains buy.
The math hasn’t changed.
Bitcoin isn't dead, but it's not that special either. The best anti-clown world thing for Bitcoin would be just that it grinds slowly and steadily, that non-correlated reserve asset, not a growth bet.
I keep believing in Bitcoin philosophically, not just as an asset. Time preference, sovereignty, exit from financialization, hope for a better system.
The cool version of Bitcoin is boring, useful, invisible, and global. Hope! The majority of Bitcoiners yell about the total collapse of the fiat world, but that’s not the way. Bitcoin will eventually win only because it just works and grinds the blocks, not because we cringe; Bitcoiners yell “Bitcoin will fix everything” or “fiat civilization will collapse”.
The fiat system rewards rent extraction over value creation
Failing at FIAT game? Should you optimize for a broken metric? Do whatever makes you happy. I cope with Bitcoin, leaving social media, running my business, trying to raise a family the best I can. Go to sleep hopeful: “I tried my best,” “I do honest work I can explain to a 6-year-old,” “hopeful about the future”.
The rational response to this incentive structure is extraction over creation, exit over integrity, short-term over long-term. The “drive off into the sunset with 8 figures,” preferably alone, fantasy isn’t nihilism. It’s economics. People aren’t becoming worse. The rules are rewarding worse behavior. Those are different problems.
Stay safe. Stay humble and stack sats. Maybe even 20+ years of bear market, enough humbling?
