Good Companies, Okay Prices...
Portfolio moves in a market that feels expensive but not yet stupid. Coursera, ServiceNow, Bitcoin, and a Finnish small-cap nobody cares about.
I'm just some dude on the internet sharing what I'm actually doing with my own money. This is not financial advice. I could be completely wrong about everything here and have been before. Do your own research.
Selling leads to more selling, especially when markets are priced to perfection and beyond, as they were. I still think the valuations are “quite hefty”.
I much rather buy good businesses at good prices than fomoing to the top, it is always easy to do what everybody else is doing.
Hard to see this business going away anytime soon, not an awesome price to buy in, but decent, I would say. I don’t watch Netflix…
This business has been on my radar before covid, and last year I had to buy the dip. It went up so fast that I had to sell. Hard to see this business going away, will ladder down if needed.
I I’m firmly in the camp that AI is a demand driver for education, not the killer. I genuinely don’t get the people screaming that AI will destroy all work and steal our jobs. Will it take the shit jobs? Yes. Good. Then we do something more productive and better. This is basic economics. Creative destruction. Schumpeter figured this out a century ago.
The sad truth is that 99.9% of people don’t understand basic economics. And the suits and other wankers on Wall Street certainly don’t understand it either. Every technological revolution in history created more jobs than it destroyed, it created different jobs. Jobs that required new skills. And guess what? Someone has to teach those new skills. That’s the entire bull case.
I also have the luxury to take these kinds of bets. Bets that are "good for humanity." Coursera is an awesome platform. It makes people more competent. It brings high-quality education within reach for almost everybody.
We've done well in the clownworld of investing. No worries there. Sleep well at night, holding this one. This has also destroyed a massive amount of value since the IPO in 2021 (Lets not forget this).
Watched this little bit on the sidelines, the numbers are awesome, well, the numbers are still very, very good. Had to add a small position here. The valuation is pretty bonkers at 100 dollars, “grow into the numbers”, but have valuations made any sense past 20 years?
AI-kills-SaaS narrative is imo stupid, they've got it backwards.
Buying great companies at okay prices has been working fantastically, so why not now? Worst-case scenario, we get to buy a great company at great prices.
Yes, we are early with this one. This is a blessing. “Value investors” dream of these opportunities. Very few have the balls to do this. You want the average returns? Go buy index, go buy whatever everybody else is buying. Investing is hard, its fucking hard. I still think this business is good + it has a ton of optionality.
Reminder how it usually goes:
Buy cheap!
Wait 12-36 months, the price keeps going lower or staying the same, question your sanity.
Watch how things are turning around.
Sell it to the bees who are flying from flower to flower, chasing “the next big thing”. (Sold too early, and question your sanity who the fuck buys this at these crazy prices.)
If this were easy, everybody would do it.
(My thesis can also be completely wrong; we all fuck up sometimes!)
Well, now it is “cheap” again at the 2021 top price, pretty funny how we came back there. I even wrote a bear case since it felt so much like a top at 120k, well, here we are again! Good to get humbled, good to stack sats again.
Nothing changed. The thesis never changed. Sound money is sound money.
Honorable mentions
Small caps from Finland: Canatu (I did very well with ASML from the 2025 dips, lets do some home country next). I don’t like Finish IT at all, but GOFORE at this price is a no-brainer even for me… Also added plenty of companies to my watchlist, like Reddit -50% in a few weeks, under 100, this starts to look pretty good, perhaps.
From November 2025 post:
I continue to DCA, it has done well!
What to do now?
Keep your head cool, but don’t let your brain freeze. Cycle coming to an end? Feels more like 1996-1997 than the end of the world. Is it stupid? Yes, but is it super hyper-stupid? Not yet?
Still, this decade has a lot of similarities with the 70s in my opinion. Do I secretly hope the rally I anticipate is just a dead cat bounce and that we enter a 2-5-year bear market? YES. What are the odds? Pretty low.
We wish for the return of common-sense economics, less money printing, less government, more freedom, and more free trade…
But wishing doesn’t make money. Doing the uncomfortable thing does.
It’s not supposed to be easy. That’s the whole point…
