What will happen in 2023? Last chance to get out? Final clown rally to end it all?
Just a fun short-term prediction. Finding quality & strong companies and stacking good assets always wins in the long run - No matter what happens this year.
The economic data for sure does not look good and something is brewing but will 2023 be so bad?
I was sure everything would start to break when the interest rate was above 3%. Surprisingly strong economy?
Still, nothing hasn’t broken yet? Will it be in 2023? Yes, it takes time.
FED pause rally?
2022 was pretty bad…
2023 little breather?
Everybody knew it was everything bubble?
We are no longer paper millionaires, so what? Life goes on.
A big part of the talking heads economics/analyst says it is a recession for sure.
Maybe, but a lot milder than everybody anticipated? Rarely is it so crowded to yell everything will collapse!!! It usually happens when everybody least anticipates it…
Unemployment rates are still at record-low everywhere.
Technology just starting to cut (They had massive recruiting during 2020-2022), and these workers are mainly fine and got big packets. It will be tough in the long run for those useless middle micromanagers. Yes, all the data is starting to look extremely bad… Data looking “recessionary” takes time, maybe until early 2024?
Inflation was flaming hot in 2022.
Already slowing down. (Will persist whole decade push and pull) (12.1.2023 CPI 6.5%
Banks are fine, and no imminent financial crisis is on the horizon (Yes, everything else is fundamentally broken, and massive amounts of debt are everywhere.)
Markets are heavily searching for some reason to rally, anything goes?
My social circle still talks about stocks, ETFs, savings, etc. Crypto got its puke, nobody talks about that.
Reminder:
In my currency wars post, I highlighted what happened when stocks and bond tanks —> New currency “System” was introduced. Enter the gold standard and then ditch it in 1971. This decade's “safe haven” will be commodities read the whole piece here. Yield curves record inversion %. Massive amounts of DEBT everywhere. Massive amount of zombie companies. We need a recession to clean out the crap and build a better future. It is completely normal to fail and then try again, more than fine to learn some new skills during your lifetime and build everything better.
Maybe during 2023, we still have time and opportunity to prepare to stack those real assets and ditch our financial assets. Recession will come, but when? Extremely hard to predict. It’s fun to be doomer but it does not pay off:
The majority of the Tesla shorts burned out, yeah they were right. But it took quite a long time, from early 2021 to late 2022, to come down…
The smartest minds in the early 2000 dotcom bubble were absolutely right that it was a massive bubble, but again they got burned out it lasted long to burst.
Try short GAMESTOP?
Nearly all were on the short late December 2022/early 2023 and now we have this small rally?
We need something stupid still to happen, maybe a clown rally to finish it? Humans have become extremely greedy. Cheap money programmed us that way. We lost some in 2022 and now we want it all back and some more. Institutions are also run by humans. I did for a long time thought that these institutions/funds etc, are extremely smart and run by the smartest minds on the planet. Yes, we have the top 1% but the rest are even worse than your REDDIT stock investor enthusiast. Just read their stuff and watch what they do; they are humans, and we make mistakes. The majority of these work just 7.5h, and that’s it.
Now we want markets to rally!
Then we need the final stomach-hurting puke.
I would hope to be wrong and we would have strong-minded individuals making smart decisions, saving money, investing long-term, and working hard. I would love it if everybody kept learning new and, instead of playing video games, played the game of how to amass some wealth. This market has been nothing but a big casino, wild gambling, and speculating. Did you make new years resolution to go to the gym? The majority will give up after February. The same will happen to investing hobby, it always has. You win by staying in the market no matter what happens, you will be a winner but it takes decades, not fucking two months or two years.
FOMO to tops? - DCA, if it’s a quality business - Keep the plan.
If it is lost a decade - Keep the plan - Stack some sats, and buy quality companies.
It goes down more? - Keep the plan.
The biggest advantage of retail investors is: We can stay in the market and hold our bags. We win in the long rung if we just keep the plan.
Keep the plan, save and invest whenever you can. Do you have six months of emergency funds? If not, save first, then start to invest.
What could start this “clown rally”?
A.I hype narrative fueling tech stock growth? (speculation has already begun strong early 2023).
“Green energy” hype also should be flaming hot?
One more time, please… If all the gamblers want a rally they will get it.
Predictions for 2023?
S&P 500 around 4200
Bitcoin UP: 30k (There have never been two down years in a row.)
Gold: 2200
War will end
I will spread more freedom and love
See, I suck at predictions, it is 10x easier to stay humble and stack sats and quality business.