Short term outlook
Sell in may go away - F*ck that buy the dips.
Clearly, this isn't investment advice. Just a ruffle fish from the internet spitting out comedy mixed with market rants.
In my pieces last week, I already hinted that now would be a good time to stay sidelined.
✅ Cash is a position, too. You even get some return on it now, whippii.
✅ Sell in May and go away has worked well over the past few years..
✅ We need a breather once in a while. The stuff that's surged has really skyrocketed… Bitcoin, fantastic four… AI stocks, Chip stocks, weird garbage.
✅ I'd be more bullish if the market strength was more widespread… Gargantuan concentration.
✅ Dreams of interest rate cuts by the Fed have vanished…
✅ Election year? Remember 2000, 2008, 2020?
Usually, I give zero fucks to these FOMC minutes, but this was funny:
“I don’t see the stag and the flation”. It's pretty dovish overall; why? Sitting here and guessing doesn’t help. Y-day, they thought this tomorrow could be the opposite. Like idiots expected 6-cuts and now only 1? They did give a path to rate cuts with the unemployment.
The job market is looking rough.
Currencies are acting weirdly (Yuan devaluation worries?, Yen??)
Early signs suggest our financial Ponzi scheme might soon collapse. The majority knows it, but do we care? No.
It is a hint. It is time to start thinking, what could fuck everybody over?
💥 Powell: Steady lads: They made the path to cuts, with unemployment (data has been bad already for a long time, only part-time jobs? Consumer sentiment very bad, etc.).
💥 Everybody sucked back into the “rate cut” narrative.
💥 Majority missed the 2022/2023 bottom, so this spring/early summer pullback to lure in the sideliners?
💥 The hated assets start to rally first even more.
💥 Everybody fomo to everything.
The “sentiment” changes so fast. COVID, end of the world, straight to the 🤡 rally. From 2022, end of the world hard landing. To soft landing and no landing and now a little bit to “suspicious mode” to end in again to the 🤡 rally?
Look at Bitcoin, it’s been very good at sniffing bullshit and frontrunning what might happen. From over 70k to 55k, good and “normal” pullback for Bitcoin. Everybody was so bullish, over 70k, that Bitcoin needed this badly. The influencers were losing hope. The lettuce hand ETF FOMOers lost hope. My Bitcoin X was full of doomporn. I was thinking we could go a little bit lower, but fuck that. Look how the dip was bought. That is impressive shit. The bulls and the bears were fucked. Now at 63k.
Regardless of your stance, it's essential to recognize Bitcoin's talent for sending valuable signals about the overall “sentiment”.
Buy the fucking dips. No need to use your brain.
This time, we will crash a little bit harder - why?
It is obvious:
💣 Extremely stupid policymakers, be it the governments, central banks, etc they all continue to make even more idiotic policy errors.
💣 Republic First Bank failed one week ago. This will continue. The domino effect will happen at some point. COUNTERPARTY RISK. This has become so messy, so who knows what is going on under the hood?
💣 Global debt is still at a record high. This shit needs to be flushed (hopefully, no more wars…)
💣 Middle class, your typical consumer is fucked. It’s over for you. Seriously.
💣 Majority of the businesses are still weak and broken from Covid. I run one myself.
At some point, the bombs will blow up.
Stay hard and stay safe,
Sources:
Great stuff go listen and follow!