Service business update part 4: Give up, doomer, it is booming!
Against all odds
Here are my previous ones: If you wish for some struggle porn and lessons, then go ahead.
From FEB 2023
From JUN 2023
From SEP 2023
All the doomerism did not play out - thank god.
After September 2023, we had a few major events that affected business.
Israeli–Palestinian conflict intensified, leading to the outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war in October 2023.
—> Business was super slow for 1-2 weeks, and everybody focused on scareporn and WW3 scenarios. The party must go on, so the partying continues somewhat normally. (2022, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, everything frozen here in Finland for 4 weeks (zero business)).
Covid scaring started again in late October / early November.
—> Remember when there was news that it was back and we should be scared again? I saw the use of masks go up for a little while, but nobody gave a zero fucks for this. However, this affected sales slightly; some big events by big corporations / public sector operators were canceled.
It was very refreshing to see that the majority did not fall for this; even the ones among my social circle who were COVID evangelists have given up. Yes, covid is real, but the lockdowns, etc, were a stupid response. “It is just another flu” seems to be the consensus.
It is good to believe everything will be fine, but there must be some realism, too.
During these holidays, Xmas to New Year's Eve, it’s been good to see suppliers and customers (pretty much only the entrepreneurs are working during these times). Very positive discussions:
+ There are a decent amount of orders for the beginning of the year 2024. Typically, the first Q1 is very quiet for services (no alcohol consumption, ski breaks, eastern…)
+ The last year, 2023 Q1, was horrible due to the high energy prices and peak doomers, so can it be worse than that? No?
+ The bottom is in? There won’t be any spectacular growth ahead, but at least you could, for the first time in 3 years, run your business somewhat “normally.”?
The rolling recession
The COVID-19 Pandemic (2020 Onwards) initially caused a brief and universal recession, but it was short-lived. The service sector was hit the hardest initially (doing business was prohibited - imagine that), scrambling in a “recession” throughout the pandemic while other industries were booming. Now, it is hitting a little bit of manufacturing, and especially, the construction industry is in big trouble here in Finland.
Bursting bubbles 2000’s dot-com bubble (a perfect example of a rolling recession, leading to GFC).
The Finnish economy did not grow after the GFC, and it is hard to see how it will grow in the future…
The profitability remains very weak no matter what.
The purpose
I hope this is just me and part of my growth, but I cannot help but ask why I do this. Why? I am soon to come to what I consider “prime years” in business 40-65 age; I survived the monkey years 20-40 but lost it all in COVID. Do I want to waste my prime years running a small business? Maybe do something great and awesome? I am a narcissistic clown, so why not go out there and succeed? And no, I am not going back to the fucking cubicle - so fuck you suits, I refuse to die inside at least.
Small entrepreneurs are tired now…
Minimal resources now, be it cash, workers, raw materials, whatever, always short on something, and then you, the entrepreneur, work more.
Past years have been crazy. First, it was the COVID (massive uncertainty), let's hope we lift the restrictions next weekend so we can do business. Wtf. Then all the wars… Energy prices… Inflation… How to plan for growth? How to plan just to survive? It takes fucking toll in the long run. Sure, many other 9-5 workers question their purpose and dream of escaping the rat race and running some small business. If you stress how to manage your holiday trip to Teneriffe, I recommend not trying to run a small business in Finland… You will not survive.
Markets move so fucking fast nowadays. Stock market? It is in every fucking market. After COVID, consumers want everything now ASAP; they also change their minds at least five times before making a purchase. Consumer behavior is wild.
Small entrepreneurs get zero credit. This has been the case forever, but it is so tiring. All the big corporations suckle subsidies from the tit… All the startups are celebrated and get plenty of subsidies (they make zero fucking money), 99% of them just sell dreams and hope. Well, somebody has to pay this fucking “welfare” here, so guess who? We also get the same amount of hate as the big corporations, like every small entrepreneur is some sleazy fucking cheater. I never cheated. I pay my taxes, my workers are delighted to earn 15-20% more than in big corporations, and we work only four days a week. But let's support the big corporations. We want everybody to work 28 hours a day in diapers! I saved 10 clown bucks! Fuck you.
Profitability remains weak, and costs will continue to rise; inflation is cooling down, but the prices aren't magically going down. Taxes will go up? More bureaucracy? Many think that small entrepreneurs make a killing, but that's not usually the case; they work with minimum wages and simply make “enough” by working 2-3x more than the average employee. After decades, maybe the business is in a shape that somebody wants to buy it, and you get your “payday”. Currently, the problem is that nobody even wants these. I have seen a few quit during COVID and go to work for the public sector/big corporations; they seem happy and have zero stress.
Why continue to fight?
Well, it is fucking cool to be a little rebel. To survive to be annoying. To meet awesome people.
The resilience and adaptability small entrepreneurs have shown is a miracle. HOPE. They will lead the way for a better future?
Focus on what makes us passionate about our work and find ways to align our businesses with our values and aspirations.
Keep dreaming big and working hard towards those dreams.
Keep up the fight! Stay strong and prosper!