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Strategizing your buys: Is now the time to invest?

This is definitely not investment advice.

It looks cheap, but is it really? Prices stagnate while earnings plummet. This might be the time to place bets at the world's biggest casinos, yet the whispers from Helsinki are too compelling to ignore.

To be fair to Finland, if we look beyond the indexes, we will see that plenty of the stocks worldwide are doing exactly the same as the Finnish ones.

We want to find exceptional companies at great prices, but we aren’t there yet in Helsinki.

Have you considered cash as an option? With returns of 3-5%, it's worth asking: will any of your picks from Helsinki outperform that?

We are not some fund managers who have to deploy and be on the market. We are private investors, so we keep it stupid and simple. Do we want to own the business or not? Here are my two sats from recent result publishers.

Neste

I have never really followed Neste. All my friends own the stock, the media constantly talks about it, and all the funds here in Finland own it. I also got excited about this many times when my friends rambled about it, or some fund manager laid out an interesting thesis. I feel good tingling and even some happy drops from my wiener, but when I arrive home and check the biggest shareholder, I see the fucking government. What’s more depressing? Tarja Halonen? Sad Ice Bears? The fucking government. A sure way to kill the excitement.

So, that is the end of my research.

Did they get a competitive advantage going all in on renewables? Go woke, go broke? I hope that is not the case here.

A leader is not made in crisis but revealed in crisis.

What paths are open for Neste to grow with robust margins?

If you liked it over 60€, you should love it at 24€. Has the thesis really changed? The strategy seems to be the same. Competition? Margins? Will the global economy go deeper into depression, or will the silent depression continue? How will the “green deals,” etc., affect Neste? Regulation? Subsidies?

All the analysts, etc., have predicted this wrong so far. Sales are down, and future predictions are full of hopium.

Dependence on government policies and subsidies often leads to unpredictability and instability.

Sitting here and guessing wtf the policymakers will do next is bad. As a small investor, you want to stay away from guessing. If you are an institution, you might have insider info on future policies, etc. If the politicians in Finland & Europe would pull Nancy Pelosi on this one, I would change my mind.

It's hard to predict the future on this one. Like I said, I don’t know much about the company and haven’t followed it enough, just throwing shit out of my head. The Finnish hivemind once again proved to be wrong.

• I Buy when the politicians start to buy it.

• Neste has a clear path to make fuck ton of money with renewables, not just rely on shitty policies and “greenwashing”. Predictability thanks!

Go to their website: https://www.neste.com/

All that greenwashing and woke shit with DEI policies. Why the fuck would I want to own a piece of this?

And just tonight, 29.4, the board booted the CEO.

Metso

Almost the exact opposite of Neste. Nobody talks about this. Hence, I got interested.

Very solid company. Resilient margins despite the weakness in markets.

Does this fit in my big picture? Pick-and-shovel play. Raw materials and energy prices will increase and be in huge demand in the next decades. There is no doubt that they will survive, but the question is, can they thrive? Will they make shareholders happy?

They have good tailwinds from “greenwashing,” sustainability, and regulation. Unlike Neste, they don’t depend on these; we small investors want them as an added bonus. Are there hidden factors that could make it stand out in this tumultuous decade? What’s the real deal with their “planet-positive” products? How do they fit into the burgeoning sectors of battery production and recycling?

I will definitely follow Metso more. Europe's weakness will continue, so there is zero reason to FOMO into this.

Is Metso merely a good company, or is it exceptional?

Frankly, I'd need to be incredibly bored to dive deeper into this one. Like and subscribe for more insights - or better yet, go fuck yourself.

Kempower

Another hivemind favorite from Helsinki. Finnish people are desperate for growth stocks and succumb to fantasy narratives repeatedly.

Sorry translation, the original was in Finnish: go follow Jukka

Insider Moves: Last year, insiders sold shares - not massive amounts, but the timing was weird. In Finnish markets, it’s crucial to watch what insiders do with their stock. If the owners sell, take the hint and consider the same.

Product Appeal: The chargers are well-regarded; my EV-driving friends swear by them. However, the EV market's initial explosive growth is stabilizing. This sector evolves rapidly - new tech, new batteries. But will Kempower grow as swiftly as the market expects?

Financials & Market Presence: With a market cap of €1 billion and Q1 2024 revenue of €42 million, the numbers start to tell their own story.

Heritage and Hype:

• Kempower has impressively pivoted from leading the welding industry with its innovative inverter technology in the 1980s to dominating the EV charging market. This history of AC to DC conversion mastery is notable.

• Their marketing materials are slick and modern, far beyond the often outdated presentations of other Finnish firms. This refreshing change aligns them more closely with global peers.

Forward-Looking Statements: The company’s webcasts are unrelentingly optimistic, forecasting growth from expansions into long-haul trucks and buses. But can we take this at face value? “Update your models based on our guidance,” they say - overly optimistic?

Industry Newcomer: Kempower’s journey is just beginning. Remember, growth is never linear. If you believe in a future dominated by electric transport and charging infrastructure, listen to the skeptics too. Positive news is easy to digest; it’s the critical voices that provide the necessary balance. Shoutout to Jukka for calling the bullshit.

Investor Sentiment: As a stubborn Bitcoin advocate, I steer clear of echo chambers filled with unchallenged optimism: “Oh wow, new charging hub in the Netherlands,” “EV sales only up.” My closest gas station is installing these.” This cautious approach is essential when analyzing new industries or companies like Tesla, Bitcoin, and Kempower. I want to follow the biggest critics, doomers, and gay bears. Do the critics misunderstand the asset? Or are they on to something?

Do I see myself owning Kempower? No, thanks. Betting on potential without substantial evidence is more hope than strategy.

UPM

No reason to sell.

When to buy?

The depression in Helsinki continues, and I start to get a little excited. Now is the time to do the hard work and find those next-decade winners. What business do I want to own? It is very hard work. Making good investments is extremely hard. I think Helsinki will still be very weak in Q2 2024, and if Europe overall gets even weaker, expect this depression to last longer.

Many will start to time capitulate - giving up on the timing of the market’s recovery. This is the time you should have happy drops on your pants, this is the best opportunity to buy. This is also the first for many in Finland. Plenty of people started during the we all know what theatre. Don’t give up!

Have a plan, study the businesses, and work hard. We are humans; we will fuck things up from time to time, and that's okay - it's just money.

Selling is also very hard. Why the fuck would you sell now? This was the plan!

It's easy to buy when everybody else is buying and to sell when everybody else is selling.

The last good bear market in Helsinki was in 2008-2010. Luckily, I was buying because I was a naive little fucker.

The best buys I ever made were those that made me question, “Is it the right time?” Sometimes, it has to feel uncomfortable. It has to feel a bit wrong. Fuck it! My thesis is strong, and I've studied this shit hard - we will buy. Did you buy the bottom of Magnificent Seven in late 2022? 16k Bitcoin? Or better yet, save to different indexes and do something worthwhile.

It's not just whispers from Helsinki or the faint tingling of excitement that should guide our buys. I've taken my share of hits - like when Bitcoin plummeted, and I caught flak for recommending a 1-5% investment. They did not understand what they bought. The lesson? Quick riches often lead to quicker losses. Throwing your money blindly at Helsinki stocks - or any investment - doesn't magically unlock financial freedom.

Remember, the real wins aren't from following the herd or capitulating to market timing. The best moves come from understanding and conviction - often questioned at the moment but solid in hindsight. Nothing worthwhile happens overnight.

So, grind through the research, fuck the noise, and invest with a plan. Because, as much as I've ranted about it, it's only the deliberate choices that lead to real gains - and yes, it's so fucking hard.

Final thought: Remember those happy drops in your pants? They should come from solid decisions, not fleeting hypes.

Sources:

https://www.neste.com/

https://www.metso.com/

https://kempower.com/