Endless Mental Marathon
Navigating the noise: from crash criers to financial jesters.
Pure speculation and for fun. These writings serve as a mental exercise to stay sharp and focused. I might sound like a broken record, harping about a looming crash and the ever-present uncertainty. But bear with me; it's less about predicting doom and more about maintaining a vigilant and focused mindset in these unpredictable times.
Time to hold your horses. This is not the time to go knees deep, play with leverage, and take unnecessary risks. Again there is also no point in yelling crash and position for some black swan event. I keep my savings plan no matter what, but I am also a gambler… And like a chameleon, I constantly adapt. My style? Ever-changing. In this ruthless market, you're prey if you don't evolve. Stagnation is a death sentence. So, I shift, I learn, and I recalibrate. Because playing the market isn't just about the gamble; it's about staying alive.
Bitcoin had its puke from 30k to 24,900. Huge liquidations. Is it sniffing something bigger? Does liquidity start to dry up faster? (It is already dry) Or was it really that some idiots sold Bitcoin because SpaceX might have sold their 300milj bags?
The sentiment is too bullish. In my social circle, everybody is still in the market.
Everybody expected (2022) a recession in 2023, VS Everybody desires a “soft landing” from here.
Magnificent Seven is ripping, but is everything else? Small caps? Concentration growing.
Too much hopium still “Wow, cyclical so cheap” and “Finnish stock market so cheap”. Cheap for a reason? They are the most inexpensive at prices where everybody wants to buy them, but nobody has the money to buy them.
Huge deficits running and saving the economy? (I missed this)
Who said the bond market is boring?
It seems the only bullish thing now is long-term rates and the dollar. This is extremely bad for everything else. Or is it? I am not a TA expert, but looking at charts that look ready to take off is fun. Again these yields are nothing extraordinary if we look at +50y charts… Are we just going back to normal?
Different story in China? Not very bullish if the world’s biggest factory is slowing down… But also, is China’s role overly exaggerated? Does these widgets and the crap they produce matter even that much? Japan story 1990’s. Sure, it surprises everybody when they expect it the least…
Was the 0% the absolute depression and now normal and healthy growth?
Or will the high rates start to hurt soon?
The zero rates were a wild party, and it is not just a mere hangover, but its aftermath is proving to be a prolonged sobering up.
I was in the camp that this clown world would end at 3%. Many believed this when the hiking started. What have these high rates “destroyed” so far? We have plenty of zombie companies & countries out there - or have they somehow managed to turn around to be productive?
→ Huge deficits
→ This takes time. Twitter is screaming that 30-y mortgage all-time highs? But the majority locked below 4%. This is a huge problem in places where the majority is in variable interest rates. These “clown” companies and vaporware shit leveraged to the teeth during the zero rates, and they don’t need more in a while. It seems like the only ones fucking up the duration were governments… They are the biggest clowns and idiots on earth - So are you surprised?
What could then trigger some crash, recession???
Ok, a few regional banks were wiped out, and that’s it? The list could go on forever. What will start the panic/crash is always right under our noses, yet so evident in hindsight.
China?
Student debt?
Credit card debt?
Too much debt overall everywhere
Does Europe get a cold winter?
Central banks aren’t working in “unison,” like in Covid. Some continue to tight, others the opposite…
Are banks still at risk?
More geopolitical tensions? Europe? Taiwan?
Commercial real estate?
Housing markets?
Strong dollar. Remember, most of the debt worldwide is still denominated in Dollars.
Hard to see any significant upside, nevertheless? The most bullish case is that we go back to party mode. When will we wake up from the dream, or will the dreaming continue?
Animal spirits have taken over the markets and run wilder than ever. What do you think of NVIDIA? or Vinfast?
Speculative behavior is still rampant. If it was bottom, markets would be subdued and speculative behavior extremely limited.
From speculation of internet stocks to speculating housing market… To end it all, speculate on fucking everything everywhere. I mean, with all respect to Vinfast, but what the fuck?
We also need the “It’s over” monkeys like myself to be indeed riddled and give up on the crash.
It is fun to speculate this nonsense, but I also did not forget my plan. I still actively research and invest. It does not pay off to wonder what interest rates will do next or get lost in the intricacies of macroeconomics. There are endless opportunities - no matter what happens to interest rates or macro.
In a world awash with debt, where central banks play their games, and geopolitical tensions rise, it's more crucial than ever to remain steadfast. To be the beacon of rationality in a sea of speculation. To dream, yes, but to dream with purpose and clarity.
This isn't just me rambling; it's mental gymnastics. Forget the market's noise for a moment. What truly counts? Your damn focus and unwavering discipline.
Be the architect of dreams. No point in whining that it is a “clown world”. Stay on the edge, observing and learning, but never fully succumbing to the noise and chaos of algorithms. Ultimately, it's about navigating the tumult with a clear mind and a steady hand.
Up Next: Finnish Stock Market Unmasked
Are you tired of my global rants? Good. Next, we're zeroing in on home turf. Dive in with me as we rip apart the Finnish stock market and shine a light on those sneaky small caps: less rambling, more revelations.