BOBO time
Bitcoin update - pack it up it's over
Why the gambling in crypto and stock markets continue even though the economy feels so shit? I don’t have a fucking clue. And I give zero fucks. I have hammered my plan home, and I stick to it.
Bought the top and now fumbled when -10%?
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - John Maynard Keynes
It's amazing how everything changes so fast. It feels like everybody changes their mind in a heartbeat. Now it is BOBO time.
I follow mainly the “Bitcoin space,” and it has so many bad takes/emotions.
Selling usually leads to more selling.
Bitcoin ETF Net Out Flows -5.1K Bitcoin (Largest in History 19.3.2024)
It turns out the ETF inflows were mainly retail salad hands?
Just profit taking? (Believe it or not majority takes profits if they are up).
GBTC forced liquidations?
(239,000 BTC Gone in Under 70 Days [1])
Still, IBIT managed to get 75mil inflow; is it bad? good? The ETFs have been a massive success; if this was the inflows/outflows in one year, I would still be impressed.
Long-term outlook has not changed: Monetary inflation. The debasement of paper.
The dollar will continue debasement vs gold and Bitcoin. Sure, it can get stronger (for a while). There is literally zero competition, or do you think YEN is strong? EURO is a total shitshow.
Oh, but the BRICS
Russia WAR
China??? Demographics and bubbles bursting.
India???
If your plan involves the assumption that maybe this time, the central banks will get something right - you are fucked.
Bitcoin is still a small asset class with little institutional adoption.
Sell in May and Go Away
Embrace the volatility, understand what you own, and exploit the stupidity.
The “Bitcoin” psychology also works in reverse. Last year, my predicted 60-80k price in 2024 was uber bullish; last week, it was heavy sandbagging. From John Mcafee's 7-figure dig prices to predicting under 40k in one week. There is no in-between. It’s just “it’s over” or “we are fucking back.” Stupid shit.
If you can’t sleep or you check the price every 15 minutes, you are overly allocated, or you don’t understand what you own.
What’s the five years? Ten years? The 20-year plan for you?
Expect volatility and plan accordingly.
Sources and good shit:
[1] https://news.bitcoin.com/gbtc-experiences-its-largest-daily-drain-yet-nearly-239000-btc-gone-in-under-70-days/
https://twitter.com/macro_dose/status/1770244206067388923
This we got y-day: Long-term outlook has not changed: Monetary inflation. The debasement of paper. Aaaand we are so back - fuck yeah