Bitcoins powerplay - ETF's
From Enforcer to MVP
It's not financial advice - pure comedy from a laser-eyed psychopath.
Last week presented Bitcoin ETFs, and it was filled with confusion… Bitcoin should trade nort of 200k - It’s over now… X was full of bad takes, and everybody seemed lost.
Confusion is the world. The ETF’s don’t give a shit about Bitcoin, they want to get in and make money. No, they don’t make much money with the fees of 0,25%, but when somebody takes a position (buy or sell, market-making activities). Understand this.
It's pretty good, in my opinion, success! It could have been a lot worse.
Everybody who knows/has heard about Bitcoin has probably been exposed to it, be it Spot or the likes of miners and Microstrage or Coinbase. “Oh, the institutions will come!” They will come eventually, but it takes years, not 1-2 days; imagine how long it takes to make decisions in these? So overall, there is still very good demand if we look at inflows!
+ Outflows from GBTC (anybody surprised?)
Smart traders reaped the discount (this was huge in 2022 around 40%)
Finally for the GBTC hodlers to able to be liquid.
Higher fees than the other ETF’s
+ Several large broker-dealers, including Citi, Vanguard, UBS, and Merrill Lynch, restricted retail from buying any spot Bitcoin ETFs.
+ Leveraged Clows, who thought it was straight 10x from here, got burned.
So what?
Bitcoin has just started its “financialization”. The fucker is not an outliner anymore. Is this good or bad in the long run? It was inevitable.
Our freedom enforcer just got its payday, our beloved mofo who grinds and does its thing from night to night. It’s 2/10 as a currency. I just visited Poland. Slotis are cool there, 10/10, but what's it like here in Finland? 0/10 useless. Bitcoin 2/10, it works everywhere!
Now it’s a 4,25 million/year player. Do we expect more? Will we get more? It won’t become a McDavid if we feed it with more money… Religion/belief/ideals don’t make you money. I love Bitcoin. It is so cool, but blindly expecting the value to go up forever? You will get fucked.
I see Bitcoin as the world's best savings technology at the moment. You can see it how you wish. The majority still sees it as a speculative bubble mania asset—some as the future currency.
First private (no government oversight)
Global
Rules-based
Monetary system
What other asset has the potential to disrupt and eat more from the cake of “store of value” like Bitcoin? ETFs will accelerate this. Bitcoin is still just 6% of Gold's market cap. It also means it comes with a lot of risk.
Again, there are helpful lessons to be learned from the above:
Understand the asset. I'm sorry, but it takes over 200 hours minimum. Don’t bother or don’t care? I still recommend allocating a tiny amount to ETFs. The same applies to stocks, too. The best way to start learning is to have a little skin in the game (only money you can afford to lose).
Don’t hope something will go up, even if you are right. I don’t recommend owning any Bitcoin if you have massive debt. Get rid of the debt, and then you can take more risks and speculate.
If I had credit card debt, I would not buy Bitcoin. If I had a mortgage, I would only allocate a 5%
I also rambled about Bitcoin to my friends and colleagues for a while, but it was pretty much pointless. This was at the start of Covid, I think 95% of them are out of it now. They believe in working 9-5, having a massive mortgage, and saving just a little bit, which is perfectly fine. We are all different. Besides, the great debasement massively rewarded this behavior, taking massive amounts of debt, buying real estate/stocks, and living beyond your means, and it will be just fine (asset prices can only go up).
“A house is a forced savings account.”
"They’re always in a rush during rush hour, cutting lines, hurrying from one place to another. I often wonder why. Is it the routine, the comfort of the known path, or something else? Maybe it's a lack of imagination, or perhaps it's just a different set of priorities."
It's not about dismissing one for the other but about recognizing the value in different approaches to wealth and life.
Do I think I am better? Is my way of living somehow more honorable or better? No, but it gives me at least the luxury of running Bitcoin.
Ok, so we gave our enforcer a contract worth 4,25 million. What now?
It will be growing pains:
Please help more of our star players and produce some numbers.
It won’t happen instantly. This will take some time.
I think the post-ETF phase will be somewhat similar. The boomers & Institutions need time to figure out this shit.
This isn't just about feeding more money into the system and expecting miracles. It's about strategic growth, just like grooming an enforcer in hockey. We can't expect our enforcer to morph into a superstar overnight; it takes time.
The post-ETF era for Bitcoin is akin to an enforcer learning to support the star players while still honing their skills. It's about more than just brute force; it's about finesse and strategy. As Bitcoin continues to grind away, validating and hashing, it's also evolving, learning to play a more nuanced game. It's not just about disrupting the system anymore; it's about becoming an integral part of it (financialization). Like our enforcer on the ice, Bitcoin needs to be more than a tough guy; it needs to be a team player, contributing meaningfully to the ecosystem.
The journey won't be without its challenges, but if done right, Bitcoin, like a well-trained enforcer, could become an indispensable asset, both feared and respected in the fucking financial arena. The potential is there, but it will take patience, understanding, and grit to make it happen.
They will hone it to success, hate it, love it, or whatever. The majority of the world's money just got access to this asset.
Buy the dips; that's your power play. Right now, our enforcer might not seem like it's in the big league with that 4.25 million tag, but just wait for the playoffs. As spring rolls around and the high-stakes games kick-off, that's when you'll see its true potential. Keep your strategy tight and your playbook close.
Remember, every winning team needs a few enforcers. You might not be a fan of their rough style or you might appreciate their unique role a bit too much, but their presence is crucial. They bring a dynamic that can turn the game around when it counts the most. The supply of these is also meager nowadays.
When the real games begin, that's when the magic happens.
Podcast of the week:
Good X
https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1746950978174370156?s=20