Bear case for the Bitcoin
What if the the top was 7-months ago march 2024?
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. This shit is free forever!
Bitcoin has been in the range for the last seven months. The 58,5k gang is getting impatient - why won’t it go up? Things need to take a breather at some point; you can't just walk over Mount Everest… This is good and healthy.
The 2022 Massacre
The market correction from 2021 highs wiped out many unethical participants:
Luna, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Celsius Network, Voyager Digital, FTX, and others collapsed.
The macroeconomic environment was unfavorable, and many believed Bitcoin was "clown money" from the zero-interest-rate era.
Selling Pressure was enormous:
Pure panic and capitulating.
Luna sold over 80k Bitcoins
Tesla reduced holdings by 80% (30k Bitcoins)
Recent selling from the German/US government is peanuts compared to the 2022 massacre.
Bitcoin hit a cycle low of 15-16k in November 2022.
Bitcoin did not shit to bed alone.
From 2021 tops to October 2022 lows:
S&P 500 down 25%
Nasdaq down 35%
Factors: Rising inflation, interest rate hikes, peaking geopolitical tensions.
Is it hard to imagine that there could be such a drawback in Bitcoin again?
The Recovery
"Bitcoin is volatile and uninvestable." Yet META saw a 600% gain from its 2022 bottom of $88 to $589. I don’t see this as a very bullish sign in general that everything trades like a shitcoin in 2024.
Bitcoin's rally: “Only” 360% from 16k lows to 73k tops.
Positive factors:
ETF approval and some regulatory clarity
Favorable macro environment
AI-driven market enthusiasm
Bear Case Considerations
Gold and stocks at all-time highs, while Bitcoin is down 16% from March 2024 tops
Growing bullish sentiment: "soft landing" to "no landing" narrative. Where is all the 🐻 if we ignore the perma-bears?
Bitcoin echo chamber expectations of "100k" and central bank money printing are helping us to go Valhalla.
Retail money? Where is it? Just go straight to memecoins?
Potential "Boomer" investor interest, but likely a slow process. What did this generation get right? Other than buying their assets with peanuts…
The majority are 100% sure that Trump will win and will pump bags.
Potential for messy election results and extended vote counting
The “surprise” recession finally? How will that affect stocks and Bitcoin? It is so stupid that it might be even more bullish since we will “print” more money. But for the short-term…
MSTR is getting out of hand. Indeed in the shithole of X, the engagement farming is now on MSTR. Is it stupid? Yes. Do I care? No. When the 4x is not enough, we want the 10x! 50x! Wuhuu to the trillions…
This is indeed the perfect setup for the rug-pull.
This is the great “Cryptofication” of everything. I need that 2-3x quickly, and then we can do the rug pull. I drive alone to the sunset rest of you fuckers can burn.
Extreme short-term focus: "I need that 2-3x quickly, and then we can do the rug pull. I drive alone to the sunset; rest of you can burn."
Volatile price action across all asset classes: Many experts are puzzled by why traditional assets are now trading like cryptocurrencies.
Speculation overtaking fundamentals: The question arises - "Well, maybe it is all just pure shit?"
A similar thing is happening with Bitcoin. I am not in Bitcoin for “to get rich fast.” It would be nice just to work hard and save my purchasing power and mind my own business.
Why buy Bitcoin when you can buy MSTR, which goes up faster… Let’s do the good old leverage to the tits and pray for the best. Retail investors should not use leverage.
Create a business, generate cash flow, and follow the MSTR playbook in that way.
The overconfidence in the MSTR “community” that Bitcoin's price will rise indefinitely, usually ends up in tears. It's a financial jujutsu game that can unravel quickly when market sentiment shifts also to the downside…
Sustainable wealth isn't built on speculative hype and leveraged bets.
The beauty of Bitcoin lies in its zero counterparty risk - a fundamental advantage you lose when you choose MSTR instead. Speculating is fun, and I do it, too.
Conclusion: We all need to be humbled
The Great "Cryptofication":
Everyone's a degenerate gambler now
Stocks, bonds, real estate – all trading like shitcoins
Fundamentals?
Purpose? What Purpose?
Get rich quickly or die trying
Long-term thinking? Fuck that quick 2-3x, and then the WW3 can start…
Leverage is the New Normal
MSTR? For kids
Retail bros YOLOing on options like it's a video game
Who needs a savings account when you can long the fucking long
Peak Delusion
Soft landing? No landing? How about face-planting?
Bitcoin to $100k? Why not $1 million? Number go up! MSTR to trillion!
"PRINT TO VALHALLA" – How fucking stupid can we get?
The Mother of All Rug Pulls
It's not about liquidity disappearing
It's about realizing it was all bullshit all along
The "system" is the ultimate shitcoin
We're all due for a humbling.
Stay hard, stay humble, and stack sats. The world's gone mad, but you don't have to.
Good reads and sources
https://x.com/Devon_Eriksen_/status/1845633982689394910
