All we need is belief
Faith dances with reality
We must believe that stocks go up forever and bond markets are always wrong. Conviction test will come eventually.
Fed just bamboozled us by being dovish and correcting that they are not considering rate cuts… Why talk about rate cuts? Trouble in China? Scared by the bond markets? Or simply creating more space for them. Everybody wants to believe in the path of rate cuts, and everything will be fine.
We want to believe in 6-8 rate cuts, and everything will be good again. We want to get so drunk again we forget all the shit. “Cryptomarkets” with ongoing meme-coin and NFT madness tells that we are far from sobering…
Enough with the cryptic shit, it's a fucking mess, and the talking heads are just as clueless as the deep-end autists here on the magical internet. Nobody knows what’s next. Why even bother?
I keep it simple now. If you held indexes and Bitcoin, you beat all the doomsday bond bulls in 2023 and the talking heads. Are you prepared for anything that can happen now? If it's not only up from here?
No debt.
No leverage.
Hold.
Buy more if capitulation.
Bitcoin remains the best; developing a scenario where it does poorly is hard. Are banks in trouble? Did the deflatory debt bubble burst? 70’s style decade? Debasement continues… You can take that to the bank. On top of this, you have 24/7, highly liquid, magical internet money in your pocket. Can you find a better piece of mind everywhere else? Oh, but the MAG7 will continue to dominate, sure, but the problem is that everybody already owns MAG7.
ETFs are coming. When they are here, you can’t say you are early anymore. Doors will open to many. Currently, there are 13 ETF applications. The marketing will be aggressive; everybody wants to be the biggest and coolest ETF and capture the biggest fees. Below Bitwise add:
Best marketers are the clueless talking heads 7/8 Presidential candidates here in Finland responded to this question: “Where will you never invest?” Bitcoin/Crypto is too volatile, harms the environment, and is gambling… I was already bullish for Bitcoin, but these idiots are the best marketers ever. Also, a big shout-out to Elizabeth Warren and big Bankers: Do you want to support surveillance states and CBDCs?
Mathematics and cryptography continue to work. Rules control Bitcoin’s monetary policy. It is easy to put your faith in this.
Why would I believe the “talking heads”? Storing most of my value in Bitcoin, I don’t care - I don’t need to care. Life is just much more simpler. Can you game the world's biggest casino? Can you do financial ju-jitsu and take advantage of massive leverage? Do you believe that the stock market will go up forever? Or are you sidelined by listening to doomers 24/7?
Belief shapes reality as much as reality shapes belief; one must question the foundation of one's faith. Bitcoin is a superior way to live; look around and ask how this current system is better. Incredibly, we have Bitcoin.
I want to believe. Not just in Bitcoin, but in the possibility of a better financial world that challenges the norms we've been conditioned to accept. After all, isn't the prospect of a better future worth some belief?
Podcast of the week: Good discussion about the societal consequences of monetary choices.
Best education bonus: Historical dive into the story of Nortel Networks. The parallels between Nortel's journey and today's market scenarios are uncanny…